*Will it Benefit “Zaffar Manhas”* ??

May 1, 2024

||Black and White Digital News||

The electoral landscape of Anantnag-Rajouri constituency is undergoing a dramatic shift, with rescheduled polls now slated for May 25, following weather and connectivity concerns that have roiled the political waters. This parliamentary segment, nestled amidst the intricate web of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status complexities, is poised for a high-stakes triangular contest among key regional players from the Kashmir Valley.

The contest sees three formidable contenders vying for victory: Mian Altaf of the National Conference (NC), Mehbooba Mufti representing the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Zaffar Manhas of the J&K Apni Party. Notably, Manhas’s candidacy is expected to draw support from influential political entities despite their absence from the fray, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and J&K Peoples Conference, transforming the electoral dynamics into a captivating triangular affair.

The BJP, though not officially in the contest, remains a central figure in the prelude to the elections. Accusations from both the PDP and NC regarding the BJP’s stance on Kashmir’s identity and special status have permeated the discourse, with the BJP’s recent plea to postpone the elections citing weather concerns and accessibility challenges due to rainfall.

Key political figures, including Ravinder Raina of the BJP, Imran Reza Ansari of J&K Peoples Conference, and Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari of J&K Apni Party, alongside independent candidates, have petitioned the Election Commission of India seeking a delay in the polls.

The BJP’s strategic interests in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency have been palpable. Over the past half-decade, the party has meticulously cultivated relationships within the region, especially among tribes like the Gujjars and Bakerwals. From granting Schedule Tribe (ST) status to influential Pahari communities to nominating the first Gujjar leader to the Rajya Sabha, Ghulam Ali Khatana, the BJP has strategically positioned itself to capitalize on electoral gains, despite concerns over potential polarization and vote consolidation.

The constituency’s shifting political landscape has also underscored the divergence within political alliances. The People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) and Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc have witnessed strains, particularly with the NC’s insistence on retaining the Anantnag seat, posing challenges to its relationship with the PDP.

For Mehbooba Mufti, Anantnag symbolizes a personal and strategic stronghold, being the hometown of the Muftis and a bastion of PDP leadership in south Kashmir. Conversely, the NC views this contest as an opportunity to regain ground lost to the PDP post-2019. The poll outcome carries profound implications for Mufti’s political trajectory and the NC’s standing ahead of upcoming Assembly elections.

The recent delimitation exercise in 2022 has further complicated the electoral calculus, with shifting voter demographics reshaping the landscape. The infusion of voters from the Pir Panjal region has augmented the prominence of tribal constituencies, altering the balance of power. This demographic evolution underscores the strategic outreach efforts by candidates like Mian Altaf and Mehbooba Mufti, tapping into their respective support bases among Gujjars and tribals.

*As the weather conditions improve in coming 10 days, there will be migration of Gujjar-Bakerwals from the constituency in search of fodder for their livestock thereby preventing them from exercising their democratic right to vote.*

As the election date approaches, Anantnag-Rajouri emerges as a crucible of political intrigue and strategic maneuvering, encapsulating the broader narrative of Jammu and Kashmir’s evolving political dynamics. With each passing day, the stakes grow higher, setting the stage for a riveting showdown on May 25.

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