India’s Trade Surplus With US May Cross $90 Billion Annually: SBI Report
India’s trade surplus with the United States may cross $90 billion annually, driven by a sharp rise in exports and higher import potential, according to a report by SBI Research.
The report estimates that Indian exporters could increase shipments of the top 15 items to the US by around $97 billion annually. Including other products, the total export potential may easily cross the $100 billion mark each year.
Terming the decline in tariffs a “golden opportunity” for Indian exporters to expand their market share in the US, the report said, “India’s trade surplus with the US may thus cross $90 billion annually. As per our preliminary estimates, Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the US by approximately $97 billion in a year.”
The expected surge in exports — potentially crossing $100 billion annually after tariff cuts — along with a structured rise in imports, could significantly widen India’s trade surplus with the US. The surplus stood at $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion in FY26 (April–December).
According to the report, the net impact on GDP could be around 1.1 per cent.
While the US accounts for around 20 per cent of India’s exports, its share in India’s imports is only about 7 per cent. In services imports, the US has a 15 per cent share, indicating that India remains a large potential market for American goods and services.
On the import side, the US has an annual export potential of more than $50 billion to India (excluding services). India has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a wide range of American food and agricultural products. Over the next five years, India intends to purchase $500 billion worth of US goods, with imports potentially rising by $55 billion.
In several commodities, the US already accounts for 20–40 per cent of India’s imports, and this share is expected to increase further as tariffs are reduced. For instance, the US supplies nearly 90 per cent of India’s almond imports.
India could save $100–150 million in foreign exchange reserves from tariff reductions in select items, the report said. Overall savings in foreign exchange reserves due to zero or reduced import duties on US goods are estimated at around $3 billion, with potential for further gains through import substitution.
