Rising Shadows: Jammu’s Spiraling Security Crisis.

||Black and White Digital News||

||Parvinder Singh July 23, 2024||

A Surge of Violence:

The tranquil valleys and bustling towns of Jammu have been rocked by a series of devastating terror attacks over the past 32 months, resulting in the tragic loss of 70 lives. This toll includes 52 brave security personnel and 18 innocent civilians. The frequency and severity of these attacks mark a significant shift in the region’s security dynamics, compelling authorities and analysts to reassess the underlying causes.

One critical factor contributing to the rising tide of violence is the expanding network of terrorist groups across different regions of Jammu. Approximately 25 such groups are now believed to be operating in the Dudu-Basantgarh area, spanning the districts of Udhampur, Doda, and Kishtwar. Similarly, another 25 groups have established their presence in the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch. These developments indicate a troubling diversification and geographical spread of terrorist activities.

Shift Towards TECHINT:

Security experts and intelligence agencies have noted a notable shift towards TECHINT (technical intelligence) in recent counterinsurgency operations. Traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) seems to have taken a backseat, resulting in challenges in gathering real-time, actionable intelligence on terrorist movements and activities. Intelligence agencies acknowledge that terrorist groups have adapted technologically, making it harder to monitor them effectively.

Central intelligence assessments reveal that around 70 percent of recent intelligence inputs in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) have been derived from TECHINT sources such as phone call records, emails, satellite imagery, social media posts, and location data from services like Google. Despite significant investments in these areas, the role of human intelligence assets, historically crucial in counterterror operations, appears diminished.

Expert Analysis: The Need for Cohesion:

Prof. (Dr.) Nishakant Ojha, Advisor on Cyber & Aerospace Security and an eminent expert on counterterrorism in West Asia and the Middle East, provides a sobering analysis of the current situation. “In the current context of escalating terrorism in Jammu, it is apparent that the Indian Army, State Police, and Para-Military Forces lack cooperation and coordination,” he says. “Effective counter-terrorism necessitates close collaboration across political leadership, civil administration, intelligence agencies, and security forces.”

Dr. Ojha emphasizes that military operations should not alienate the population, as this only strengthens the terrorists’ support base. “The support base for terrorists directly impacts the effectiveness of coercive measures, highlighting the importance of governance alongside military actions,” he explains in an interview to leading newspaper.

Policy Gaps and Tactical Failures:

According to sources, a clear and coherent policy to combat terrorism and prevent Pakistan’s proxy war, including controlling terrorist infiltration across the Line of Control (LoC), has been lacking from both central and state authorities. Internal conflicts and motivational issues among the Army, Para-Military, and Police have been observed, undermining operational effectiveness.

“Recent terrorist attacks from Kathua to Doda have revealed that the perpetrators, all allegedly trained by the Pakistan Army in guerrilla warfare, were equipped with advanced M-4 weapons and tactical devices for IEDs,” Dr. Ojha explains. “In these incidents, terrorists managed to seize weapons from slain Indian soldiers, and subsequent events were documented on the illicit ‘Kashmir Tigers’ website operated by terrorist groups.”

Infiltration Tactics:

There are suspicions that terrorists have established secret tunnels to facilitate infiltration from Pakistan into Jammu & Kashmir. This infiltration primarily involves foreign terrorists and elements of the Pakistan Army. Despite significant technical and human intelligence capabilities, there appears to be a critical gap in strategic planning and coordination among stakeholders in the region. A new group of hybrid terrorists has emerged who carry out attacks and killings. These individuals are civilians without prior affiliations to terrorist organizations and often resume their normal lives after committing attacks, posing significant challenges for security forces in identifying and apprehending them.

Operational Challenges:

At the tactical level within the Indian Army in J&K, challenges include the absence of integrated operational commands in conflict zones, leading to accountability issues among agencies, turf wars, cultural differences in operating procedures between police and military, insufficient leadership within the police ranks, and incompatible communication equipment. “Overall, the situation underscores the urgent need for a cohesive strategy and unified approach among all agencies involved in order to effectively address the ongoing security challenges in Jammu & Kashmir,” Dr. Ojha states.

Intelligence and Expertise:

“In the current situation, intelligence agencies have to play a crucial role in combating terrorism by gathering valuable information through various means such as signal intelligence (SIGINT), communication intelligence (COMINT), electronic intelligence (ELINT), human intelligence (HUMINT), and other sources including surveillance. It is essential for these agencies to employ a diverse team of personnel with extensive experience,” says Dr. Ojha in an interview with leading news channel. He adds, “Agents and analysts should possess cultural, linguistic, and regional expertise. Unfortunately, during the Kargil conflict, this expertise was severely lacking, particularly in understanding the dialects spoken in the Northern Areas of POK, which hindered the quick interpretation of signal intercepts and the effective dissemination of intelligence.”

Strategic Shifts and Impacts:

Several strategic shifts and geopolitical considerations have contributed to the rise in militancy in Jammu. The implementation of a zero-terror policy in Kashmir has inadvertently provided militants an opportunity to operate in Jammu. In 2020, perceived low militancy in Jammu led to troop movements to Ladakh, potentially prompting militants to relocate. Jammu’s strategic importance as a gateway to the rest of India makes it an attractive target for militants aiming to disrupt normalcy and create fear.

Geostrategic and Economic Factors:

The proximity to the LoC provides militants easier access from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, facilitating infiltration and logistics support. Recent incidents indicate a deliberate effort to establish footholds in hilly and forested terrains across districts like Rajouri, Poonch, and Reasi. Economic disparities and lack of development in remote and border areas of Jammu create fertile ground for recruitment of local youths by militant groups. Political alienation, exacerbated by historical grievances and administrative challenges, can foster sympathy or support for militant ideologies.

Human Intelligence Gaps:

A significant gap in human intelligence gathering has emerged as the locals who provided information decades ago are now in their 60s or 70s, and the security forces have not nurtured relations with younger generations.

Case Study: The Attack on Shaurya Chakra Awardee Parshotam Lal’s House:

One of the most harrowing incidents highlighting the local support for militants was the targeted attack on the house of Shaurya Chakra awardee Parshotam Lal in Rajouri. Militants identified and attacked his home, underscoring the depth of their local intelligence and support networks. This attack raises critical questions about the extent of local collaboration and the motives behind such targeted strikes.

Historical Context and Challenges:

The history of militancy in Jammu and Kashmir is rooted in several factors, including the eroding credibility of political parties, increasing trust deficit, support from Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, and the controversy over the 1987 election rigging. Unemployment, radicalization, and the glorification of gun culture further exacerbate the instability.

Addressing the Challenges:

The geographical terrain of Jammu, with its international border (IB) and the LoC, presents significant challenges for security forces. Building and maintaining trust between security forces and local communities is essential for intelligence gathering but remains a persistent challenge amid historical grievances and demographic diversity. Efforts to revive Village Defence Guards (VDGs) are complicated by past allegations of crimes committed by VDG members. Gathering accurate and timely intelligence is difficult due to the presence of local sympathizers and the use of sophisticated communication technologies by militants.

External Support and Communal Fault Lines:

Allegations of cross-border support from Pakistan, including weapons supply via drones, underscore the external dimensions influencing local militancy dynamics. Jammu’s demographic diversity, with a mix of Hindu, Muslim, and other communities, has historically been vulnerable to communal tensions during periods of heightened violence. Recent incidents, such as the killings in Dangri village and targeted strikes on specific communities, indicate a deliberate strategy to stoke communal fears and divisions.

A Unified Approach:

In conclusion, the rising militancy in Jammu underscores the urgent need for a cohesive strategy and unified approach among all agencies involved. Effective counter-terrorism requires a combination of TECHINT and HUMINT, close collaboration across political leadership, civil administration, intelligence agencies, and security forces, and a deep understanding of the local cultural, linguistic, and regional dynamics. Only through such a comprehensive and integrated approach can the ongoing security challenges in Jammu & Kashmir be effectively addressed.