||Black and White Digital News ||

||September 26,2024 ||

KASHMIR: After his near defeat in 2014 and a loss in the recent Lok Sabha polls, National Conference (NC) Vice-President Omar Abdullah is cautiously approaching the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections by contesting from two seats—Ganderbal and Budgam. While Ganderbal has historically been the Abdullah family’s stronghold, recent setbacks have created uncertainty in this once-impregnable bastion.

Ganderbal: A Legacy Under Threat:

For decades, the Ganderbal constituency has been synonymous with the Abdullah family. NC founder Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah first contested from here in 1977, and the seat has largely remained under the family’s control. Of the seven elections held since then, the Abdullahs have won six. The only exception came in 2002 when Omar Abdullah was shockingly defeated by Qazi Mohammad Afzal of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by about 3,000 votes. Though Omar regained the seat in 2008, that defeat remains a significant moment in Ganderbal’s electoral history.

The sense of invulnerability around Ganderbal was further shaken in 2014 when Omar chose to abandon the constituency altogether. Several local senior NC leaders had defected to the PDP, and the NC had trailed the PDP in Ganderbal during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Instead of risking another loss, Omar contested from the Sonawar and Beerwah seats, losing Sonawar but narrowly winning Beerwah by less than a thousand votes. This strategic shift underlined the fragility of the Abdullah grip on Ganderbal.

Back in the Family Turf, But with New Challenges:

This time, Omar has returned to contest from Ganderbal, in addition to Budgam, a seat that lies adjacent to Beerwah. Both constituencies are critical for NC as they recorded the highest number of votes for the party in the recent Lok Sabha elections. In Ganderbal, NC’s winning candidate, Aga Ruhullah, secured more than 50% of the vote share under the Srinagar parliamentary seat. In Budgam, which falls under the Baramulla parliamentary constituency, Omar himself garnered 45% of the votes in the Assembly segment despite losing the overall Lok Sabha election.

However, this does not guarantee an easy win for Omar. The once-assumed safe seat of Ganderbal presents multiple challenges. Firstly, Omar is seen as a non-native candidate, a perception that has weakened his standing in the constituency. Secondly, there are strong contenders in the race, such as the PDP’s Bashir Ahmad Mir and the Awami Ittehad Party’s Sheikh Ashiq, both of whom are vying for a significant share of votes.

The Ishfaq Jabbar Factor:

Adding to Omar’s difficulties is the presence of former NC member Ishfaq Jabbar. After Omar vacated Ganderbal in 2014, it was Jabbar who won the seat for the NC. However, Jabbar is now running as an Independent candidate after parting ways with the party. As a local candidate with a strong support base, he is expected to claim a sizeable chunk of votes, further complicating Omar’s chances.

Jabbar’s candidacy is particularly significant because he hails from Ganderbal, positioning himself as a native representative in contrast to Omar, whose association with the constituency is seen more as a legacy than a grassroots connection. The fractured vote share, with both PDP and Independent candidates in the fray, makes the race highly unpredictable.

Budgam: A Safer Bet?

While Omar is returning to Ganderbal, his decision to also contest from Budgam suggests a backup plan in case the family’s hold on Ganderbal fails again. Budgam, where Omar received 45% of the vote share in the recent Lok Sabha elections, could serve as a more comfortable win. However, even in Budgam, the electoral landscape is not without challenges, especially as political dynamics in the region continue to shift.

Omar Abdullah’s decision to contest from two constituencies in the upcoming J&K elections reflects both caution and an acknowledgment of the uncertain political terrain he faces. While Ganderbal remains symbolically important as the family seat, its electoral outcome is far from guaranteed. The presence of strong local contenders, including former NC ally Ishfaq Jabbar, means Omar will need more than his family legacy to secure victory. In Budgam, where he may have a stronger chance, Omar is still not sitting pretty, as political fragmentation and shifting loyalties could influence the outcome.