||Black and White Digital News ||

||October 05,2024 ||

JAMMU: The much-awaited three-phase assembly elections in the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir concluded on October 1, 2024, covering all 90 seats. This election holds historical significance, being the first assembly election since the bifurcation of the erstwhile state and the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, and the first in a decade. With polling now complete, the focus shifts to exit poll predictions, which are expected to provide early insights into the mood of the voters and the possible formation of the next government in the region.

The exit poll results for the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly Elections 2024 will be broadcast on October 5, 2024, after the voting process for the final phase in Haryana concludes. According to the Election Commission of India (ECI) guidelines, media outlets are permitted to air exit poll results only after 6:30 pm, ensuring that the electoral process is not influenced until all voting is complete. Audiences can access the exit poll results and detailed analysis through various television channels, online platforms, and news websites.

The 2014 Context and Present Stakes:

The last assembly elections held in 2014 presented a fractured mandate, with no single party securing a majority in the 87-seat assembly of the then-state of Jammu & Kashmir. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, emerged as the largest party, winning 28 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)came second with 25 seats, followed by the National Conference (NC) with 15 seats and the Congress with 12. Unable to form a government independently, the PDP and BJP formed a coalition that governed the state until June 2018, when the BJP withdrew support, citing a lack of consensus on major policy issues, particularly around security and militancy.

The 2024 election is significant not just for the major political parties but also for the people of the Union Territory, as it represents a key opportunity to re-establish democratic governance after years of direct administration by the central government. The elections are being viewed as a referendum on the region’s new political framework post the abrogation of Article 370 and the restructuring of Jammu & Kashmir.

Exit Poll Projections in 2014:

The exit polls in the 2014 elections had indicated a tightly contested battle, predicting:

BJP: 27-33 seats

PDP: 32-38 seats

National Conference: 8-14 seats

Congress: 4-10 seats

Others: 2-8 seats

These predictions foreshadowed a fragmented verdict, which ultimately led to the formation of the PDP-BJP coalition. However, the alliance proved to be short-lived, as differences on issues like the handling of militancy and governance created an insurmountable rift between the coalition partners, leading to Governor’s rule and, eventually, significant constitutional changes.

Candidates and Key Players in 2024:

The current election features several prominent figures representing various political parties, all aiming to reshape the future of the Union Territory. Among the key candidates to watch in the 2024 elections are:

Ravinder Raina: The current president of the regional unit of a major national party, known for his strong stance on Jammu’s issues and development.

Devender Singh Rana: A prominent political figure with significant influence in the Jammu region.

Omar Abdullah: Former Chief Minister and leader of a regional party, seeking to regain political ground in the Kashmir Valley.

Iltija Mufti: Daughter of Mehbooba Mufti, representing the new generation of a prominent political family and party in the region.

Sajjad Gani Lone: Leader of a key regional party, known for his independent approach and appeal in North Kashmir.

Waheed Para: A young leader trying to expand his party’s influence among the youth.

Tara Chand: Veteran political leader with deep roots in the Jammu region, representing traditional party interests.

Anticipated Political Outcomes:

The exit poll results are expected to shed light on the potential composition of the assembly and whether a single party or coalition will emerge with a governing majority. With the halfway mark at 46 seats in the 90-seat assembly, the results could indicate a stable government or another fragmented mandate, necessitating alliances and compromises.

The primary battle is expected to be between the BJP, which aims to consolidate its position in Jammu and make inroads in the Valley, and regional parties like the National Conference and PDP, who are looking to regain lost political ground. Meanwhile, other smaller parties and independent candidates are also vying to play a crucial role, particularly in a scenario where no single party crosses the majority threshold.

What’s Next:

The official counting of votes is scheduled for October 08, 2024, when the final results will be announced, determining the composition of the new assembly and the future political direction of the Union Territory. The outcome will not only shape the governance in Jammu & Kashmir but also impact national politics, given the region’s unique position in India’s political and security matrix.