||Black and White Digital News ||

||September 22,2024 ||

SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir’s political and communal faultlines, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is banking on a dual strategy to secure its dominance in the Jammu region while monitoring separatist activities in the Valley. As the Union Territory heads into its first Assembly election in a decade, BJP seeks to replicate or surpass its 2014 success when it secured 25 out of 37 seats in Jammu.

Jammu’s Transformation Narrative:

Across the Jammu region, from Kathua to Rajouri and Doda, billboards prominently feature Prime Minister Narendra Modi, drawing sharp contrasts between the pre-2014 era of “strife” and the post-2014 period of “peace” under BJP rule. The campaign emphasizes how fear has been replaced by fearlessness, with slogans positioning the BJP as the agent of change. Yet, hoardings of BJP candidates themselves are less visible, pointing to Modi’s centrality in the party’s electoral messaging.

Despite concerns over inflation, unemployment, and dissatisfaction with former BJP legislators, party leaders insist that the momentum is now in their favor. A district BJP president acknowledged that just six months ago, the party struggled to project itself as winning more than ten seats. However, recent political shifts, especially in the Kashmir Valley, are bolstering the BJP’s hopes for consolidating Hindu votes in Jammu.

Kashmir’s Influence on Jammu’s Voting Pattern:

The BJP’s strategic focus on the Valley is rooted in the rise of separatist elements like Engineer Rashid and the Jamaat-e-Islami, which have fielded candidates in the Kashmir region. This has amplified concerns in Jammu, with local BJP leaders warning that allowing such elements to gain electoral ground would lead to instability in the entire state. These warnings resonate with voters in Hindu-majority areas of Jammu, who remain deeply suspicious of Kashmiri politicians.

Rajat, a student from Doda, articulates this fear, expressing concern about what might happen if candidates backed by Rashid and the Jamaat win seats in the Valley. He highlights the growing sentiment that Jammu must assert its interests to avoid being overshadowed by Kashmir-centric politics.

Jammu’s Political Divide:

The delimitation of 2022, which increased Jammu’s legislative representation from 37 to 43 seats in the 90-member Assembly, has heightened the stakes. Many in the region perceive years of government neglect in favor of Kashmir, deepening communal and political divides. While Hindus gravitate towards the BJP’s nationalist rhetoric, Muslims in the region, particularly students at Jammu University, voice frustrations with the current political discourse.

Some students criticize the BJP for ending the Durbar Move tradition—an annual shifting of the J&K government between Jammu in winter and Srinagar in summer. They argue that the decision, made after the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A in 2019, has harmed local businesses and trade in Jammu. Still, both Muslim and Hindu students acknowledge that the restoration of democracy after years of central rule is a positive step forward.

Challenges and Opportunities:

The Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance, meanwhile, views the situation differently, portraying itself as the only viable option to prevent the rise of radical forces in Kashmir. Congress leaders argue that the BJP’s aggressive focus on Kashmir could backfire, warning that Jammu’s peace and development are contingent on stability in the Valley.

Ultimately, Jammu’s electorate faces a critical decision. As political developments in the Valley are closely monitored, the BJP hopes to leverage the fear of separatist influence to consolidate Hindu votes. However, this strategy risks further polarizing the region along communal lines, complicating Jammu’s future political landscape.