||Black and White Digital News ||

||Parvinder Singh ||16,September ||

JAMMU / KASHMIR: With assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir set for results on 8th October, Kashmiris are bracing for a significant moment in their political landscape. While expectations run high for the outcome of the elections, the question of who will take the helm of power is particularly sensitive, given the region’s complex socio-political environment. Amid this, the BJP’s ambitions for installing its own Chief Minister (CM) in Srinagar, perhaps even a Hindu CM, have sparked debate. Here’s why Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah should, in the national interest, defer these plans — at least for now.

A Complex Political Landscape: Seeds of Change:

Kashmir today presents an intricate mix of hope and lingering uncertainties. Traveling across the valley, especially to places like Shopian — once a hotbed of militancy — reveals a newfound sense of optimism. The youth are yearning for a brighter future, with aspirations to join the civil services. Take Sehrish, a student in Shopian who walks nine kilometers daily to attend school. Despite past turmoil, these students are determined to succeed, encouraged by visible improvements in infrastructure, such as online libraries and better amenities.

Shopian’s history teacher, John Mohammed Paul, highlights that while progress has been made under government initiatives, more needs to be done. Children still walk long distances due to a lack of transport, but initiatives like the Jal Jeevan Mission and MNREGA have brought visible change in rural Kashmir. Across districts like Baramulla, these signs of development reflect a significant shift from the violence-riddled past. Even amidst ongoing political and social challenges, many Kashmiris see progress, though much remains desired, especially in terms of jobs and socio-political stability.

The Political Pulse: Aspirations and Disappointments:

Kashmiris are eagerly awaiting the assembly elections after a decade of direct governance by Delhi. While development is palpable, the political conversation is still dominated by Article 370 and its revocation. The legacy of the abrogated article stirs both resentment and resignation. Though political figures like the Abdullahs and Muftis may promise the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, many in the valley recognize that these are largely rhetorical promises.

As the election approaches, there is visible enthusiasm. People yearn for local governance and leadership that reflects their aspirations rather than continued administration from the central government. The electoral turnout in the October elections is expected to be high, akin to previous Lok Sabha elections, signaling a strong desire for local representation. However, despite this eagerness, there is an underlying concern that the results may disappoint, irrespective of which party comes to power.

Three Likely Election Scenarios:

A Clear Winner: Congress-NC Coalition:

The most likely outcome, based on current alignments, is a clear victory for the Congress-National Conference (NC) coalition. This alliance is contesting all 90 seats, and if they secure a majority, Omar Abdullah is poised to return as Chief Minister. Even if they fall short by a few seats, the coalition can likely depend on support from the PDP and other smaller parties to form the government.

Fractured Verdict: A Chance for the BJP:

A fractured mandate is another possibility. Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party, and other regional players, like the People’s Conference and JeI-backed independents, could spoil the chances of a clean sweep by the Congress-NC combine. The BJP, contesting 62 seats, may find an opportunity in this fractured scenario. The Azad-Bukhari-Lone trio, viewed as BJP’s implicit allies, could help the BJP form a coalition government. This could pave the way for a long-cherished BJP dream — installing a Hindu Chief Minister in Srinagar.

Stalemate: Continuation of Lieutenant Governor’s Rule:

The third scenario could see a verdict so fractured that no viable coalition emerges to form the government. In this case, the current administration led by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha would continue, prolonging central rule in the region.

Why the BJP Should Wait: Risks Outweigh the Rewards:

While the BJP may be eager to fulfill its ambition of having its own Chief Minister in Srinagar, particularly one from the Hindu community, pursuing this goal now could backfire. Here are several key reasons:

Kashmir’s Evolving Sentiment:

There is a tangible sense of change in Kashmir’s social and political fabric. While the BJP has gained traction in Jammu and parts of Kashmir, pushing for a Hindu CM could disrupt the fragile balance that has been painstakingly nurtured. The sentiment among Kashmiris — both Muslim and Hindu — is a desire for local governance and stability, not necessarily the imposition of an outsider narrative.

Risk of Polarization:

Forcing a BJP CM, particularly a non-Muslim, at this juncture could lead to significant polarization. The memories of Article 370’s abrogation are still raw, and any attempt to impose a leadership that is not reflective of the valley’s demographic realities could deepen mistrust. Even though the BJP has made inroads with some regional players, these alliances are often seen as opportunistic and may not hold the valley’s long-term interests at heart.

Long-term Stability vs. Short-term Gains:

The BJP’s national interests would be better served by ensuring long-term stability in Kashmir rather than chasing short-term political gains. Installing a CM in Srinagar aligned with their ideology may appear as a victory for the party, but it risks alienating the region further. Kashmir’s delicate socio-political situation demands careful handling, and rushing for symbolic wins could lead to greater unrest.

A Time for Prudence, Not Ambition:

Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah face a crucial decision in the aftermath of the upcoming assembly elections. While the BJP has worked hard to build a base in Kashmir, the time is not ripe for a dramatic move such as installing a Hindu CM. National interest calls for patience and a recognition of the fragile progress being made in the valley. The BJP should focus on fostering stability and addressing Kashmir’s economic and social challenges, rather than pushing for political milestones that could reignite old tensions.

In deferring their plans, they can ensure that Kashmir’s future is one of inclusion and development, rather than further polarization. The dream of a BJP CM in Srinagar may come true one day — but that day should not be now.

Sajad Gani Lone